注册 投稿
经济金融网 中国经济学教育科研网 中国经济学年会 EFN通讯社

欧盟成员国长期经济发展前景的分析

文件大小:未知

级别评定:

添加时间:2016-05-02 17:04:50

最后更新:2016-05-02 17:24:36

下载积分:0分 (只有会员文件下载时才需要相应积分验证)

总浏览:

总下载:14

发布人:彭宣朝

  • 如果您发现该资源不能下载,请在本站论坛提出,管理员会及时处理。
  • 未经本站明确许可,任何网站不得非法盗链及抄袭本站资源。
  • 本站资源均为网友提供交流,仅供教学、研究使用,请下载后24小时内自行删除。
    0
资源简介
HM Treasury analysis:  the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives
 
Foreword
On 23 June, the people of Britain will make the most important decision for a generation – whether to remain in the European Union. It is one that will affect them, their families and their children for decades to come. 
What’s clear is that the British people are asking for the facts before they decide whether to vote Remain or Leave. I promised to set out a serious and soberassessment of the economic facts, to inform this vital decision for our country. That is what this analysis provides. 
Of course, there are many factors to weigh – not just the economic ones. Does Britain want to continue to be a country that faces out to the world? Do we want to be promoting our case at the top table of the world’s institutions? Is our national security best served by retreating from the world? 
But my first duty as Chancellor is to seek to deliver economic security and higher living standards for the people of Britain, and that is the prism through which this document considers the costs and benefits of EU membership. 
Using detailed analysis and rigorous economic modelling, this document sets out the Treasury’s assessment of the long-term economic impact of staying in the EU compared to the alternatives. The short-term economic impact will be assessed in a future government publication. 
It is widely accepted that leaving the EU would mean a new relationship based on one of the following models: 
• membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway 
• a negotiated bilateral agreement, like those of Switzerland, Turkey or Canada, or 
• membership of the World Trade Organization without any specific agreement with 
the EU 
No country has been able to negotiate any other sort of deal, and it would not be in the EU’s interest to agree one. 
The conclusions of this document are clear: none of the alternatives support trade and provide influence on the world stage in the same way as continued membership of a reformed EU; and all of them come with serious economic costs that would affect businesses, jobs, living standards and our public finances for decades to come. To put it simply, families would be substantially worse off if Britain leaves the EU. 
If we take as a central assumption that the UK would seek a negotiated bilateral agreement, like Canada has, the costs to Britain are clear. Based on the Treasury’s estimates, our GDP would be 6.2% lower, families would be £4,300 worse off and our tax receipts would face an annual £36 billion black hole. This is more than a third of the NHS budget and equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax. 
This analysis shows a vote to remain is therefore the best way to ensure the continued growth of the UK economy and future prosperity for this and future generations. Britain is stronger, safer and better off in the EU. 
I hope that armed with these facts, the people of Britain will feel better informed and able to make this historic choice with confidence.

 

资源评论

快速入口
回到顶部
深圳网站建设