Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence.
Francesco Furlanetto
Orjan Robstad
Abstract
We propose a new VAR identi cation scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identi cation is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is crucial to achieving identi cation. Notably, immigration is an endogenous variable in the model and can respond to the state of the economy. We nd that domestic labor supply shocks and immigration shocks are well identi ed and are the dominant drivers of immigration dynamics. An exogenous immigration shock lowers unemployment (even among native workers), has a positive e ect on prices and on public nances in the medium run, no impact on house prices and household credit, and a negative e ect on productivity.
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