揭秘中国的房地产繁荣

Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom

Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Quanlin Gu, Peking University
Wei Xiong, Princeton University and NBER
Li-An Zhou, Peking University
 

Abstract

We construct housing price indices for 120 major cities in China in 2003-2013 based on sequential sales of new homes within the same housing developments. By using these indices and detailed information on mortgage borrowers across these cities, we find enormous housing price appreciation during the decade, which was accompanied by equally impressive growth in household income, except in a few first-tier cities. While bottom-income mortgage borrowers endured severe financial burdens by using price-to-income ratios over eight to buy homes, their participation in the housing market remained steady and their mortgage loans were protected by down payments commonly in excess of 35 percent. As such, the housing market is unlikely to trigger an imminent financial crisis in China, even though it may crash with a sudden stop in the Chinese economy and act as an amplifier of the initial shock.

全球最具学术声誉的宏观经济学研讨会NBER宏观年会第三十届会议破天荒地出现了2篇关于中国宏观经济运行热点的文章，全部由海外华人学者与大陆学术机构的经济学家联合研究完成。这既反应了全球范围内对中国经济问题的重视度在提高，也反应了有关中国现实经济问题的研究水平的提高。

30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics

April 17 and 18, 2015
Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan Parker, Organizers
 

http://www.nber.org/macroannualconference/macroannual_2015.html