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政府经济政策,情绪与消费

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资源简介

Government Economic Policy, Sentiments, and Consumption


Atif R. Mian 


Princeton University - Department of Economics; Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; NBER

Amir Sufi 


University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; NBER

Nasim Khoshkhou 


Argus Information and Advisory Services

June 19, 2015
 


Abstract:      

We examine how consumption responds to changes in sentiment regarding government economic policy using cross-sectional variation across counties in the ideological predisposition of constituents. When the incumbent party loses a presidential election, individuals in counties more ideologically predisposed toward the losing party experience a dramatic and discontinuous relative decrease in optimism on government economic policy. Using the interaction of constituent ideology in a county with election timing as an instrument, we estimate the impact of government policy sentiment shocks on consumer spending, and we find a very small effect that cannot be statistically distinguished from zero. The small magnitude of the effect is estimated precisely. For example, we can reject the hypothesis that pessimism regarding government economic policy effectiveness during the Great Recession had as large an effect on consumption as the negative shock to household net worth coming from the collapse in house prices.

 

Number of Pages in PDF File: 51

Keywords: consumer confidence, government, economic, policy, sentiment, news, noise, spending, consumption, elections, voting

JEL Classification: E20, E21, E60

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