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Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured

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Brent Ambrose, N. Edward Coulson, and Jiro Yoshida, Pennsylvania State University

Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured

One of the largest components of official price indexes is housing services, which account for 16% to 41% of major price indexes in the United States. This paper demonstrates that the current measure of housing rents does not accurately track the actual inflation rate of housing rents.AmbroseCoulson, and Yoshida propose to use an alternative quality-adjusted measure of housing rents that is based on a monthly statistic of landlord net rental income. Using their new rent indexes, the researchers show that the annualized quarterly rate of modified inflation was on average lower than the official rate by 1.4% to 3.4% during the Great Recession but higher by 0.3% to 0.7% during the current expansionary period after the recession. They further demonstrate significant impacts of their improved measurement of inflation rates on the cost of living adjustment to Social Security and real gross domestic product.

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