Unconventional Fiscal Policy, Inflation Expectations, and Consumption Expenditur
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添加时间：2016-05-02 17:19:34
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发布人：彭宣朝
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资源简介
Unconventional Fiscal Policy, Inflation Expectations, and Consumption Expenditur
Abstract
Unconventional scal policies incentivize households to accelerate consumption by generating future consumer price ination, and o er an alternative to unconventional monetary policy (Correia et al. (2013)). We use a natural experiment to study the causal e ect of unconventional scal policies on consumption expenditure via the in ation-expectations channel. The German administration unexpectedly announced in November 2005 a three-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT) e ective in 2007. This shock increased German households' in ation expectations during 2006, as well as actual in ation in 2007. Matched households in other European countries serve as counterfactuals in a di erence-in-di erences identi cation design. German households' willingness to purchase durable goods increased by 34% after the shock, compared to matched foreign households. Income or wealth e ects do not appear to drive these results, and we do not nd evidence of intratemporal substitution from non durable to durable consumption
