后危机时代欧美经济发展研究
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资源简介
The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model
Abstract
The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences—in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that the post-2009 EA slump mainly reflects adverse aggregate supply shocks (low TFP growth) and adverse shocks to capital investment. Fiscal austerity has not been a key driver of the EA slump. According to our estimates, the faster post-crisis rebound of the US economy largely reflects favorable investment shocks. Our estimates indicate small but non-negligible shock transmission between the EA and the US.
Link
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2015/20151001_post_crisis_slump/documents/w._roeger.pdf
