Macro has been in the driving seat in Europe in the year-to-date.Yes，Brexit has been rumbling on in the background and tweets coming from across the pond have signalled an increased level of uncertainty with respect to transatlantic trade and defence relations.But the continued improvement in the global business cycle has more than offset this political noise，in our view.Could this now start to reverse？Elections are coming in Netherlands（Q1）and France（Q2），with Germany arriving in H2 and possibly Italy.The French election is our focus in this report.We perceive this event to be the most significant given that it may well mark a fork in the road of the political landscape，not just in France but across the whole of the EU.